Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 2nd August, 2011

On Monday 01 Aug 2011,The first day of a new month saw an impressive start of trade at Dalal Street with the bourses flying high after US President Barack Obama announced that top American lawmakers have reached an agreement to reduce the budgetary deficit to avert a debt default. Laying out the endgame in the US debt crisis just two days before a deadline to lift the borrowing limit, the White House and congressional leaders said the compromise would cut about $2.5 trillion from the deficit over the next 10 years, thereby prompting across the board buying. However, the bourses disengaged most of their sparkling gains towards the end of the trade as trader's took the profit off the table, digesting the latest monthly auto sales and economic reports like trade data and manufacturing PMI. The HSBC factory Purchase Managers' Index (PMI), a headline index to measure the country's factory output, slipped to the lowest in 20 months at 53.6 in July from 55.3 in June. Indian factory growth fell for the third month in a row in July as a long series of interest rate hikes and faltering global demand weighed on new orders and output growth.

The BSE Sensex gained 117.13 points or 0.64% and settled at 18,314.33 and NSE Nifty closed at 5516.80 up 34.80 points or 0.63%. The BSE Mid-cap index lost 0.02% while Small-cap index was down by 0.26%.   On the BSE Sectoral front, IT up 0.86%, TECk up 0.81%, Auto up 0.79%, Capital Goods up 0.71% and Health Care up 0.56% were the major gainers. On the flip side, Metal down 1.25%, Consumer Durables down 0.30% and FMCG down 0.11% were the only losers.

On the global front, US shares closed with sharp losses on Friday as debt woes combined with disappointing gross domestic product data spooked investors. Meanwhile, Asian shares jumped higher on Monday with US President Barack Obama's announcement of a framework agreement to lift the nation's debt ceiling and avert a sovereign default sparked a relief rally. The European shares recovered some of the previous week's sharp losses on Monday, supported by a political deal to raise the United States' borrowing and forecast-beating results from HSBC.

Meanwhile, trader's were also cautious after Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council said inflation would remain around 9 percent till October and the central bank will have to continue with its tight monetary policy, thereby signaling another rate hike by the RBI in its upcoming monetary policy review. The council cut its 2011-12 growth forecast to 8.2% from 9% and predicted that headline inflation would not begin to ease till November. Also, the projection that the fiscal deficit could touch 4.7% in the year to March 2012, above the government's target of 4.6%, called for stronger measures to increase revenue intake and cut spending.

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 1st August, 2011

On Friday 29 July 2011, Prolonging three day's somber mood to the fourth day, local bourses failed to stage any recovery. Although several times the bourses tried to enter the green after the mid morning fall, however surrendered to the selling pressure by the end of the trade the bourses shut shop in red influenced by the sluggish global leads. Depressed World markets over the US debts impasse dented the trade at Dalal Street too. Upbeat earnings from two Index heavyweights, ITC and ICICI Bank did some good to the bourses but after witnessing substantial recovery they gave away all their gains by the closing, as US debt deadlock, which loomed large for the world markets triggered a flight to safety from equity markets.  Market  is approaching  the end of the result season,  and there were lots of result announcements lined up, ITC was up for the second consecutive session, gaining around 1% after the Cigarette major yesterday reported its net profit for the quarter ended June 30, 2011 at Rs 1332.72 crore as compared to Rs 1070.31 crore for the same quarter last year, up by 24.52%. Meanwhile, the street spirit also got boosted post the result of private sector lender-ICICI Bank, whose net profit  for the 1st quarter increased by 29.85% at Rs 1332.20 crore as compared to Rs 1025.98 crore for the corresponding quarter last year. Also soothed the markets by its performance were the stocks of Idea Cellular- which shot up over 4% after the company surpassed the street's forecast. Added to the investor's delight   were the stocks of the Syndicate Bank, which surged over 2% after the bank's net profit for the quarter surged 29.22% at Rs 342.91 crore as compared to Rs 265.36 crore for the June quarter last year.

The BSE Sensex lost 25.63 points or 0.14% and settled at 18,183.89. The index touched a high and a low of 18,334.27 and 18,131.86 respectively. 11 stocks advanced against 19 declining ones on the index (Provisional). The BSE Mid-cap index lost 0.70% while Small-cap index was down by 0.78%. On the BSE Sectorial front, FMCG up 0.79%, Bankex up 0.62%, TECk up 0.36%, Auto up 0.20% and IT up 0.15% were the only gainers. On the flip side, Metal down 1.92%, Realty down 1.80%, Oil & Gas down 1.34%, Capital Goods down 0.88% and PSU down 0.87% were the top losers.

India VIX, a gauge for market's short term expectation of volatility gain 6.80% at 19.77 from its previous close of 18.51 on Thursday.   The S&P CNX Nifty gained 0.15 points to settle at 5,487.90. The index  touched  high and low of 5,520.30  and 5,453.95  respectively.  22 stocks  advanced  against  28 declining ones on the index. (Provisional)

All The Asian equity indices finished the day's trade in the redon the last trading day of the week following weak Wall Street performance overnight, as the deadline approaches for US lawmakers to strike a deal to avert a disastrous default. Meanwhile, Chinese Shanghai snapped the day's trade with a cut of about 0.3 percent, led by energy shares, but resurgent oversold financial names capped losses while, Taiwan stocks fell about one and a half percent in their worst daily percentage drop in nearly three weeks on Friday, with TSMC leading tech heavyweights down after the world's top contact chip

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 29th July, 2011

On Thursday 28 July 2011, Thursday proved not a different day for the Indian markets in their series of decline,  extending  their downfall  for yet another  day and closing  the July F&O  series  on a very disappointing note. The mood was somber since beginning, as the US markets plunged overnight and under their impression  the Asian markets made a weak start. Due to the impasse in US regarding increasing  the debt limit the mood of the whole global markets has turned cautious, investors are anxiously watching the outcome of the US parliament discussion. Back on the Dalal Street, the trade was likely to be volatile as it being the day of F&O series expiry, and after making a gap-down start the benchmark indices never showed a sign of recovery though the trade remained choppy but within a tight range for most part of the day, it was in the last half an hour of trade that the selling intensified and the BSE Sensex breached its crucial 18200 mark. Not only the rate sensitive sectors but the metal, IT, technology oil & gas all suffered sharp cuts for the day. From the rate sensitive sectors, Auto showed some resistance in the early trade but could not recover and closed lower by over half a percent. After RBI's rate hike, the Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has said that the Reserve Bank of India might hike policy rates again as inflation was unlikely to come down to a comfortable level this year, making the investors and the India Inc. nervous. He termed the action necessary even though it was hurting growth. Mukherjee further said that 50 basis points rate hike was intended to convey a 'strong signal' about the regulator's intention to curb inflation. The commodity stocks declined in tandem with their global counterparts as the stalling global growth will diminish the commodity demand.

The BSE Sensex lost 235.64 points or 1.28% and settled at 18,196.61. The index touched a high and a low of 18,327.85 and 18,188.88 respectively. 5 stocks advanced against 25 declining ones on the index (Provisional). The BSE Mid-cap index lost 0.93% while Small-cap index was down by 0.97%. On the BSE Sectoral front, FMCG up 0.90% was the only gainer. On the flip side, Metal down 2.51%, Realty down 2.16%, Oil & Gas down 1.72%, IT down 1.61% and Bankex down 1.48% were the top losers.

The trend of moderation of India's food inflation has continued yet another week, country's food inflation, measured by the wholesale price index (WPI), declined to its 20 month low level at 7.33% for the  week  ended  July  16 from  7.58%  in last  week.  This  fall  in food  inflation  was  contributed  by moderation in prices of pulses, milk, Fruits and Egg, Meat & Fish.

Asian markets continued their downfall and all the indices in the region barring Hang Seng finished the day's trade in the negative terrain on Thursday, amid rising worries that the US will not be able to resolve a deadlock in talks on raising its debt ceiling, which could spur a credit downgrade or even a debt default. Chinese Shanghai Composite ended with a cut of over half a percent, dragged down by financials, as the mainland's top banking regulator ordered banks not to roll over or renew their loans with government financing vehicles while Nikkei tumbled about one and a half percent as

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 28th July, 2011

On Wednesday 27 July 2011,Local bourses failed to recover from the previous session drubbing, after the Reserve Bank of India surprisingly hiked the key policy rates by a hefty 50 basis points. Investors are of the view that this hawkish stance of the central bank would crimp India's GDP growth in FY12, as consumers and corporate will cut down on their spending. However, the flip-flop of the bourses could also be contributed to the volatility ahead of the expiry of July 2011 derivatives contracts on Thursday, 28 July 2011.Meanwhile,  even global markets could not provide any guidance to the Indian equity market as the investors staying on the sidelines awaited the US debt deal. On the global front, the stalemate in US debt talks dragged down US stocks for a second day on Tuesday, and light volume showed that investors were reluctant to make bets despite another round of healthy earnings. Meanwhile,  Asian shares after see-sawing  for the entire session  ended mixed as US debt worries maintained their grip on the region's investors. The European shares fell on Wednesday as a deadlock over raising the US debt limit raised concerns about a possible default and a downgrade of the country's top-notch credit rating, prompting investors to cut their exposure to riskier assets. Back home, stocks from Capital Goods, Power, Realty along with banking counters plummeted the most. However, the stocks from the Auto space recovered some losses from the early deals. Banking and Realty stocks extended Tuesday's losses, triggered by worries that higher interest rates could dent demand for funds along with demand for residential and commercial properties. However, charmed investor's with their performance were the stocks from the Consumer Durable (CD), Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and TECk counters, which were up with the gains ranging from 0.20%-1.5%.

The BSE Sensex lost 87.30 points or 0.47% and settled at 18,430.92. The index touched a high and a low of 18,578.55 and 18,358.76 respectively. 11 stocks advanced against 19 declining ones on the index (Provisional). The BSE Mid-cap index gained 0.27% while Small-cap index was up 0.04%. On the BSE Sectoral front, Consumer Durables up 1.46%, FMCG up 0.30% and TECK up 0.09% were the only gainers. On the flip side, Capital Goods down 1.82%, Power down 1.58%, Bankex down 1.02%, Realty down 0.88% and Oil & Gas down 0.83% were the top losers..

India VIX, a gauge for market's short term expectation of volatility lost 5.44% at 18.25 from its previous close of 19.30 on Tuesday. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 28.00 points or 0.50% to settle at 5,546.85. The index touched high and low of 5,591.70 and 5,521.50 respectively. 18 stocks advanced against 31 declining ones while 1 stock remained unchanged on the index. (Provisional)

Most of the Asian equity indices finished the day's trade in the positive terrain on Wednesday but, investors remained cautious amid the continuing stalemate over raising the US debt ceiling. Chinese Shanghai Composite rose about 0.80 percent, South Korean shares ended higher in the trade, however, Japanese Nikkei fell half a percent .

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 27th July, 2011

On Tuesday 26 July 2011,Surprising move by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its first quarter review of Monetary Policy 2011-12 led to the massacre at Dalal Street. RBI showing an unexpected resolution in fighting  persistently  high inflation  despite  slowing  growth  in Asia's third-largest  economy,  much against the street expectation hiked the key policy rates by 50 bps, taking the repo and reverse repo rate to 8% and 7% respectively. The central bank of India's anti inflation stance coupled with its hawkish language  mainly shunned  the investors  from the Indian equity markets  as this indicated  that the world's  one of the most aggressive  inflation  fighters  had much in its offing given the clambering inflation, putting an end to the expectation that the current rate hike would mean the end of rate hike cycle. What also graved investor's  sentiment  was that the central bank increased  its projection  for wholesale inflation at the end of the fiscal year in March to 7 percent, from 6 percent earlier.  In tandem with the global markets, Indian equity markets also witnessed a sluggish day of trade as on the global front, US stocks dipped on Monday as lawmakers remained in a standoff over raising the debt ceiling to avoid default. However, Asian shares ended on strong note despite the US Debt deadlock as upbeat earnings lured buyers. The European shares edged lower on Tuesday weighed down by weaker than expected results from oil major BP and Swiss Bank UBS and investor concern over the consensus of a US debt limit deal.

The BSE Sensex lost 369.53 points or 1.96% and settled at 18,501.76. The index touched a high and a low of 18,944.60 and 18,481.63 respectively. 1 stock advanced against 29 declining ones on the index (Provisional). The BSE Mid-cap index slipped 0.97% while Small-cap index was down 0.78%. On the BSE Sectoral front, there were no gainers. On the flip side, Realty down 3.74%, Capital Goods down 3.44%, Bankex down 2.60%, Auto down 2.29% and Power down 1.86% were the only losers.

India VIX, a gauge for market's short term expectation of volatility gain 0.52% at 19.30 from its previous close of 19.20 on Monday. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 107.90 points or 1.90% to settle at 5,572.40. The index touched high and low of 5,702.25 and 5,560.15 respectively. 3 stocks advanced against 47 declining ones on the index. (Provisional)


All the Asian equity indices finished the day's trade in the positive terrain on Tuesday as investors hopeful that a compromise would resolve the US debt deadlock even as President Barack Obama illustrated his country as being dangerously close to default. Japanese Nikkei surged about half a percent in the trade as robust quarterly earnings from companies such as Canon and Kao Corp and optimism over upcoming earnings reports of other Japanese firms overshadowed concerns over stalled negotiations on the US debt ceiling moreover, Chinese Shanghai Composite index rose over half a percent on bargain hunting in large-cap stocks after tumbling almost three percent to a one- month low in the previous session in the aftermath of last week's deadly collision of a high-speed

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 26th July, 2011

On Monday 25 July 2011,Showcasing  immense resilience in the face of slothful global setup amidst prevailing caution ahead of the RBI's monetary policy review scheduled to be held tomorrow, Indian equity markets withholding  previous session's spirit ended in green territory on Monday. Slew of positive development such as clearance of the Retail FDI proposal coupled with the passing off the RIL- BP deal, mainly cheered the Dalal Street, distracting investor's fears over probable another rate hike. The street expects rates Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to raise its rate by a total 50 basis points (bps) by the end of the year, including 25 bps increase on Tuesday. On the global front, the US markets made a mixed closing on Friday, as concerns of lawmakers agreeing to increase country's debt limit amid some weak earnings announcements, weighed on the sentiment. Meanwhile Asian markets fell Monday, weighed by concerns over stalled negotiations on raising the US debt ceiling, which spurred the safe-haven yen higher  and pressured  shares  of Japan's  exporters.  Mainland  Chinese  shares  tumbled  on lingering worries about the nation's economic growth outlook, with railway stocks hit especially after a high- speed rail system accident occurred over the weekend.   European shares fell on Monday from their highest in more than a week in the previous session as investors cut riskier assets on the possibility of a first-ever US debt default after talks between Democrats and Republicans again collapsed. Also, US stock index futures dropped on Monday as a political impasse in Washington's debt ceiling talks fuelled worries of a US default, knocking world equities lower and pushing gold to a record high.

The BSE Sensex gained 144.79 points or 0.77% and settled at 18,867.09. The index touched a high and a low of 18,932.27 and 18,670.84 respectively. 24 stocks advanced against 6 declining ones on the index (Provisional). The BSE Mid-cap index gained 0.45% while Small-cap index was up 0.48%. On the BSE Sectoral front, Metal up 1.36%, HealthCare up 1.35%, Auto up 1.31%, TECk up 1.30% and Capital Goods up 1.24% were the top gainers. On the flip side, FMCG down 0.84% and IT down 0.03% were the only losers.

India VIX, a gauge for market's short term expectation of volatility gain 7.20% at 19.20 from its previous close of 17.91 on Friday (Provisional). The S&P CNX Nifty gained 45.85 points or 0.81% to settle at 5,679.80.  The index touched  high and low of 5,700.55  and 5,616.70 respectively.  39 stocks advanced against 11 declining ones on the index. (Provisional)

All the Asian equity indices finished the day's trade in the negative terrain on Monday after US political leaders failed to reach a deal to raise Washington's debt limit that is crucial to avoid an impending default. Chinese Shanghai Composite crumbled about three percent in the trade, weighed down by railway stocks after a deadly train crash at the weekend, while worries over a potential US debt default too hurt the traders' sentiments.

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 25th July, 2011

On Friday 23 July 2011,Joining the global rally, the Indian equity markets snapped their two day's declining trend and showcased an awe-inspiring performance on the last trading day of the week, after euro zone leaders finally struck a bailout deal for Greece, easing concerns the region's debt crisis may spread and threaten global growth. Though across the board buying sent the benchmark indices sparkling above their respective psychological level of 18600 (Sensex) and 5600 (Nifty), however, some of the market men trimmed some of their position in the afternoon deals in order to avert the volatility surrounding the coming week. Since two big trigger's i.e. RBI's monetary policy review and the F&O series expiry are scheduled next week and would decide the movement of the bourses. The street widely expects at least a 25 basis point rate hike by RBI in its policy meet, given the clambering monthly inflation data. However, the expectation that the RBI is nearing the end to its anti inflationary stance, gave the market again a reason to rejoice. The anticipation that the RBI would not go for another rate hike post the monetary policy review on July 26,2011 mainly sent the banking stocks soaring high as the banking index was the top gainer twinkling with the gain of over 2%. On the global front, US stocks climbed on Thursday as signs of progress on the US debt talks and concrete action from Europe on its own debt crisis heartened investors. European shares rose on Friday and were on track for a fourth straight session of gains, led by banks after a new rescue package was agreed for Greece. The second bailout for Greece, announced on Thursday, included 109 billion euros of EU government money and a contribution by private sector bondholders estimated to be as much as 50 billion euros by mid-2014.

The BSE Sensex gained 282.68 points or 1.53% and settled at 18,718.87. The index touched a high and a low of 18,747.06 and 18,533.43 respectively. 27 stocks advanced against 3 declining ones on the index. The BSE Mid-cap index gain 1.29% while Small-cap index was up 0.79%. On the BSE Sectoral front, Bankex up 2.21%, TECk up 1.96%, Capital Goods up 1.77%, Auto up 1.69% and IT up 1.44% were the top gainers. On the flip side, Consumer Durables down 0.61% was the only losers

India VIX,a gauage for market's short term expectation of volatility lost 4.48% at 17.91 from its previous close of 18.75 on Thursday. The S&P CNX Nifty gained 92.05 points or 1.66% to settle at 5,633.65. The index touched high and low of 5,642.20 and 5,567.10 respectively. 42 stocks advanced against 2 declining ones on the index. (Provisional)

All the Asian equity indices barring KLSE Composite finished the day's trade in the positive terrain on last trading day of the week after euro-zone leaders finally struck a second bailout deal for Greece that also puts in place steps to avoid contagion in other struggling economies.. Moreover Japanese Nikkei surged over a percent in the trade, led by banks that leapt after Morgan Stanley's strong results and euro-sensitive issues such as Canon, up on the euro's gains after officials agreed on steps to solve Greece's debt woes.

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 22nd July, 2011

On Thursday  21 July  2011,  Ignoring  the development  on the macro  font,  Indian  equity  markets extended  their  downwards  trend  for  the  second  consecutive  session  perturbed  by  the  earning's reported  by the corporate  giants  for Q1 today,  of which  most  turned  out to be disappointment. Meanwhile, giving some respite to the government, India's food inflation measured by wholesale price index (WPI) softened to 7.58% for week ended July 9 from 8.31% in the previous week. However, the investor's brushing aside the weekly inflation numbers seemed more apprehensive over the potential rate hike by the RBI in its upcoming monetary policy review in the coming week on the back of the clambering monthly inflation data.   Traders also remained wary ahead of an emergency summit of euro-zone leaders later in the day, with an agreement reached late on Wednesday between France and Germany on a second bailout package for Greece. The new bailout package is likely to include measures to cut the country's debt, lower interest rates and the participation of private investors holding Greek debt.  On the global front, US stocks closed slightly lower a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched its biggest closing of the year as the oncoming debt ceiling deadline overshadowed  strong earnings from Apple Inc. European shares rose on Thursday, with banking stock gaining the most after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy reached a joint position over a second bailout for Greece.

The BSE Sensex lost 77.66 points or 0.42% and settled at 18,424.72. The index touched a high and a low of 18,566.99 and 18,415.36 respectively. 9 stocks advanced against 21 declining ones on the index. The BSE Mid-cap index lost 0.39% while Small-cap index was down by 0.43%. On the BSE Sectoral front, IT up 0.18% and TECk up 0.13% were the only gainers. On the flip side, Consumer Durables down 2.19%, Realty down 1.43%, Bankex down 1.02%, Oil & Gas down 0.89% and Health Care down 0.70% were the top losers.

India VIX,a gauge for market's short term expectation of volatility lost 1.88% at 18.75 from its previous close of 19.11 on Wednesday. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 26.90 points or 0.48% to settle at 5,540.15. The index touched high and low of 5,578.90 and 5,532.70 respectively. 15 stocks advanced against 35 declining ones on the index. (Provisional)

Asian equity indices recovered from its initial downfall and finished the day's trade on a mixed note on Thursday as investors remained cautious and watched for progress in raising the US government debt limit and talks on Europe's debt crisis. Chinese Shanghai declined over a percent after a weak reading on China's HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index renewed concerns that growth in the world's second largest economy may slow in the latter half of the year while, South Korean shares ended down about half a percent in the trade as uncertainty about the global economy and the euro zone's debt crisis hit manufacturing heavyweights such as shipbuilder Hyundai Heavy.

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 21st July, 2011

On Wednesday 20 July 2011,Brushing aside the positive global leads, local bourses reacting to the slew of disappointing earnings reports reversed all its morning gains on Wednesday. Although the benchmark indices started on an optimistic note spurred by the firming trend in Asian stocks which in turn took cue from the overnight gains of the US street. But soon the release of India's No. 3 software services exporter- Wipro-Q1 number stained the trade at Dalal Street. The nation’s third-biggest software services provider -Wipro-plunged the most in three months on the reports that the company sees headwinds to its profit margins in its fiscal second quarter due to wage hikes and a $150 million acquisition it did in April. On Consolidated basis, the Group‘s net profit has registered a gain of just 1.24% at Rs 1334.90 crore. Not that indices did not break out in green after this, as the benchmarks paring all the losses, turned positive in the mid-morning trade with several blue chips standing tall giving up some support. But soon the slew of the disappointing results posted by the biggies thwarted the investor’s which preferred taking profits off the table, thereby sending the benchmark indices below the psychological 5,600(Nifty) and 18,600(Sensex) levels. However, positive opening of the European markets coupled with covering up of the pending shorts, made the benchmark indicesrecover from their low points of the day. On the global front, US stocks posted their best day since March on Tuesday after strong corporate results and as renewed hope for an agreement on thorny budget issues boosted investor confidence, thereby leading to an up move.

The BSE Sensex lost 171.28 points or 0.92% and settled at 18,482.59. The index touched a high and a low of 18,765.60 and 18,473.90 respectively. 4 stocks advanced against 26 declining ones on the index. The BSE Mid-cap index lost 0.94% while Small-cap index was down 0.45%. On the BSE Sectoral front, FMCG up 0.17% was the only gainers. On the flip side, Health Care down 1.94%, Power down 1.81%, Capital Goods down 1.68%, Bankex down 1.46% and Auto down 1.45% were the top losers.

India VIX,a gauge for market short term expectation of volatility lost 0.72% at 19.11 from its previous close of 19.25 on Tuesday. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 51.15 points or 0.91% to settle at 5,562.40. The index touched high and low of 5,645.40 and 5,555.10 respectively. 6 stocks advanced against 43 declining ones while 1 stock remained unchanged on the index. (Provisional)

All the Asian equity indices barring shanghai composite finished the day’s trade in the positive territory on Wednesday following strong gains on Wall Street overnight as progress in US debt ceiling negotiations boosting investor sentiment. Japanese Nikkei surged over a percent in the trade, with technology shares were lifted by stellar earnings results from US titans IBM and Apple while, benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan too rose 1.16 percent and 2.13 percent respectively as makers of tablet and smart phone components posted strong gains.

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 20th July, 2011

On Tuesday 19 July 2011, Stalling two consecutive sessions' declining trend, local bourses emerged victorious on Tuesday comforted by some good earnings reports coupled with the positive opening of the European markets that temporarily eased investor's qualms over wobbly financial health of the US and the Euro zone. India's benchmark stock indices climbed the most in a week as lenders rallied after the third biggest bank-HDFC Bank- reported earnings that beat estimates. The local bourses which wandered up till the afternoon deals showcased awe-inspiring performance during the mid-afternoon deals, thereby turning around losses to profits, shrugging of the rate hike fears which dominated the morning trade at Dalal Street, investor's indulged in bargain buying at lower levels encouraged by the positive leads from Europe. On the global front, US stocks ended lower on Monday as bank shares bore the brunt of investor frustration over governments' inability to solve debt crises in the United States and Europe. Meanwhile, the European shares edged up on Tuesday, in a slight rebound after a sharp fall in the previous session, with tech shares gaining after an upbeat statement from IBM. It reported that signings of new business at its services division surged 16 percent in the second quarter, trouncingexpectations and signaling strong spending on technology by corporations. However, investors werestill cautious ahead of a key meeting to address the euro zone debt crisis on Thursday. However,investors were still cautious ahead of a key meeting to address the euro zone debt crisis on Thursday

The BSE Sensex gained 130.00 points or 0.70% and settled at 18,637.04. The index touched a high and a low of 18,690.42 and 18,481.83 respectively. 23 stocks advanced against 7 declining ones on the index . The BSE Mid-cap index gain 0.39% while Small-cap index was up 0.76%. On the BSE Sectoral front, Consumer Durables up 1.32%, Realty up 1.14%, IT up 1.07%, TECk up 1.02% and Metal up 0.90% were the top gainers. On the flip side, Power down 0.46%, Auto down 0.40% and Capital Goods down 0.39% were the top losers.

India VIX, a guage for market's short term expectation of volatility lost 4.70% at 19.25 from its previous close of 20.20 on Monday. The S&P CNX Nifty gained 39.70 points or 0.71% to settle at 5,606.75. The index touched high and low of 5,627.65 and 5,557.20 respectively. 41 stocks advanced against 8 declining ones while 1 stock remained unchanged on the index. (Provisional)

Most of the Asian equity indices finished the day's trade in the negative terrain on Tuesday tracking weak global cues as the euro-zone debt crisis roared on while lawmakers in Washington remained deadlocked on an agreement to avoid a US default. Japanese Nikkei fell over 0.80 percent as banks were sold on growing investor frustration with governments' inability to solve debt crises in the United States and Europe while, Chinese Shanghai eased 0.70 percent on Tuesday, weighed down by a pull-back in financial issues following news of China Merchants Bank's fundraising plans.

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 19th July, 2011

On Monday 18 July 2011, Cautious global setup served to be major cause behind the decline of Indian equity markets in today's trade, as worries over a potential US sovereign debt default, ongoing concerns over the euro zone debt crisis prompted investors to shun riskier assets, thereby encouraging the bourses to extend its downtrend for second consecutive session. Local bourses oscillated in narrow range amidst the listless trade on Monday as investor's lacking the conviction stuck on the sidelines owing to the dearth of positive triggers. Similar to the previous trading session, benchmark indices after showcasing immense optimism at the dawn of the trade, failed to hold on to the spirit, thereby ending the lackluster day of trade in the “red zone”. However, approaching the closing, they cut their losses and emerged over their day's low as market men covered some pending shorts towards the end of the trade. On the global front, US market closed with marginal gains on Friday after results from the European banks' stress tests came out slightly better than expected and on good earnings announcement by Google and Citigroup, though the concerns of the US debt ceiling issue kept looming large. The European Banking Authority (EBA) said on Friday that of the 90 European banks tested, only eight had failed the 'stress tests' performed to determine if they could withstand a long recession.Expectations were for up to 15 banks to fall short.. The European shares extended the previous week's declines on Monday as bank stocks took a fresh beating on the first trading day following a much-hyped capital stress test that failed to dispel fears about the impact of the regional debt crisis.

The BSE Sensex lost 76.83 points or 0.41% and settled at 18,485.09. The index touched a high and a low of 18,622.56 and 18,469.53 respectively. 11 stocks advanced against 19 declining ones on the index. The BSE Mid-cap index gain 0.19% while Small-cap index was up 0.34%. On the BSE Sectoral front, Realty up 0.93%, Consumer Durables up 0.75%, Metal up 0.43%, Power up 0.29% and PSU up 0.17% were the top gainers. On the flip side, Auto down 1.21%, IT down 0.92%, Health Care down 0.83%, Teck down 0.71% and Oil & Gas down 0.39% were the top losers.

India vix,a gauge for markets short term expectation of volatility gained 1.25% at 20.20 from its previous close of 19.95 on Friday. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 19.85 points or 0.36% to settle at 5,561.25. The index touched high and low of 5,596.60 and 5,550.95 respectively. 20 stocks advanced against 30 declining ones on the index. (Provisional)

Most of the Asian equity indices finished the day's trade in the negative territory on Monday despite Friday's better-than-expected European bank stress-test results, as investors continued to fret over euro-zone sovereign debt while, debt problems in the US too dampened the sentiments in the region. Chinese index Shanghai Composite edged lower in the trade, weighed down by energy shares on news reports the government may broaden taxes to protect natural resources.

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 18th July, 2011

On Friday 15 July 2011, Putting a halt to their two consecutive sessions' uptrend, local bourses finished the lackluster day of trade with a loss close to half a percent. Benchmark Indices after showcasing splendid performance in the morning trade failed to hold onto the optimism and soon slipped into the red territory as investors sold riskier assets amid concern a global slowdown will hurt corporate earnings. Besides, that the June Inflation numbers which sparked the hope of the RBI continuing its anti inflation stance in the upcoming monetary policy review scheduled to held next week, also activated the bears into the Indian equity markets. Fresh shorts that were built in the rate sensitive sector i.e. Auto, Realty and Bankex mainly lugged the market lower. However, some solace came into the markets in the form of good result announcement from the IT bellwether TCS, which injected strength into the IT index, thereby making it the top gainer index on the BSE sectoral front with a gain of over 0.25%. However, overall trade at Dalal Street remained range struck as investors chose staying on the sidelines ahead of the next big trigger, RBI monetary policy review on July 26, 2011. On the global front, US stocks fell on Thursday as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke backed off hints additional near-term stimulus could be on the way, removing a possible catalyst from a market already facing plenty of obstacles. However,a set of strong earnings from US corporations aided sentiment to some extent. The European shares were headed for their biggest weekly fall in four months on Friday, with miners tracking weaker metals and financials coming under pressure ahead of a bank stress test report expected to show some second- tier lenders have failed.

The BSE Sensex lost 67.53 points or 0.36% and settled at 18,550.67. The index touched a high and a low of 19,619.65 and 18,513.22 respectively. 7 stocks advanced against 23 declining ones on the index (Provisional). The BSE Mid-cap index lost 0.18% while Small-cap index was up 0.01%. On the BSE Sectoral front, IT up 0.30% was the only gainers. On the flip side, Metal down 0.87%, PSU down 0.65%, Realty down 0.48%, FMCG down 0.38% and Auto down 0.36% were the top losers.

India vix,a gauge for markets short term expectation of volatility lost 0.10% at 19.95 from its previous close of 19.97 on Thursday.The S&P CNX Nifty lost 17.85 points or 0.32% to settle at 5,581.95. The index touched high and low of 5,631.70 and 5,562.75 respectively. 17 stocks advanced against 32 declining ones and 1 stock remained unchanged on the index. (Provisional)

Asian equity indices finished the day's trade on mixed note on the last trading day of the week as investors remained cautious following a weak lead from Wall Street. The Nikkei rose about 0.40 percent, buoyed by European investors scooping up cyclical shares, but was capped by the top of the narrow range it has traded in for most of the week, with the majority of big players on the sidelines ahead of bank stress tests in Europe, while Hong Kong fell 0.30 percent in the trade on concerns that US lawmakers will not be able to agree a deficit-cutting budget that will help avoid a debt default by

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 15th July, 2011

On Thursday 14 July 2011, Local bourses after see-sawing for the entire session managed to hold their previous  levels  at  the  end  of  the  trade,  thereby  putting  forth  second  consecutive  green  closing. However,  benchmark  indices  pared most of their gains achieved  in the afternoon  deals since the investor's shaken confidence led them to pocket majority of their gains towards the dying hours of the trade. Jitters post Wednesday's serial bomb blasts in the country's financial capital coupled with the surging  inflation  data,  majorly  dented  the  sentiment.  As  India's  food  inflation  snapping  two consecutive weeks's decline, quickened to 8.31% for the week ended July 2 v/s 7.61% in the previous week. However, some solace came to the markets with the release of the Monthly Inflation data, which came in lower than the expectation. The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at 9.44% for the month of June 2011 as compared to 9.06% seen in the previous month and 10.25% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Despite accelerating in the month of June the numbers came lower than the estimation as some economists forecast a gloomier picture and a sharper rise to 9.7% because of the recent hike in petroleum products prices by the government. On the global front, US stock indices halting a three-day slide, ended with modest gains on Wednesday after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested the Fed would consider additional measures to support the economy if the outlook gets worse. Moody's placed its US rating under review for a possible downgrade if the Treasury's debt ceilings were not raised soon and the government defaults on a debt payment. The European shares resumed  their  downward  journey  on Thursday  after  gaining  in previous  session;  with  investors dumping riskier assets on Moody's warning to US.

1) The BSE Sensex gained 2.27 points or 0.01% and settled at 18,598.29. The index touched a high and a low of 18,803.05 and 18,449.23 respectively. 16 stocks advanced against 13 declining ones while 1 stock remained unchanged on the index. The BSE Mid-cap index gained 0.40% while Small-cap index was up 0.14%. On the BSE Sectoral front, Realty up 2.22%, Bankex up 0.97%, Health Care up 0.76%, Metal up 0.48% and Consumer Durables up 0.36% were the top gainers.

2) India VIX,a gauge for market's short term expectation of volatility gain 2.30% at 19.97 from its previous close of 19.52 on Wednesday.  The S&P CNX Nifty gained 0.75 points or 0.01% to settle at 5,586.20. The index touched high and low of 5,653.95 and 5,541.70 respectively.  26 stocks advanced against 24 declining ones on the index.(Provisional)

3) Asian equity indices finished the day's trade on a mixed note on Thursday as Moody's Investors Service's review of US credit ratings for a possible downgrade prompted caution, pressuring financial stocks and some exporters. China's main stock index ended the trade with a gain of over half a percent, supported by strong gold miners for a second-straight session on the back of surging gold prices.

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 14th July, 2011

On Wednesday 13 July 2011, The Indian equity markets tailing their regional counterparts made a good bounce back on Wednesday, though, the trade remained in a narrow range but the indices held comfortable gains throughout the day. The Asian markets recovered with the report of good Chinese GDP growth in the second quarter that eased some worries of the markets that the global economic recovery won't falter. On the domestic front though there was not any specific trigger but the markets made a positive start on Chinese cues and moved higher supported by short covering and value picking at the lower levels. The rate sensitive's along with the oil & gas sector stocks propelled the markets higher after two consecutive sessions of drastic fall. Healthcare sector remained firm throughout the day supported by gains in the heavyweight Dr Reddy's, which announced that of receiving final approval of its ANDA for Fondaparinux Sodium Injection, a bioequivalent generic version of Arixtra(R), in the US market by the United States Food & Drug Administration (USFDA). The approval covers 2.5 mg/ 0.5 mL, 5.0 mg/ 0.4 mL, 7.5 mg/ 0.6 mL and 10 mg/ 0.8 mL doses of the drug in prefilled color-coded, single-dose syringes with automatic needle safety device. Some support also came from the market heavy weight Reliance Industries (RIL) after the Director General of Hydrocarbons (DGH), the regulator for oil explorers, defending its action has promised to initiate appropriate remedial action' against RIL if the company is found to have incurred unjustified cost, violating the provisions of the production sharing contract (PSC).  Good recovery was seen in the beaten down realty stocks like DLF, Anant Raj, Sobha Developers and Indiabulls Real Estate that surged in the range of 2-5%.

1) The BSE Sensex gained 211.89 points or 1.15% and settled at 18,623.51. The index touched a high and a low of 18,626.41 and 18,465.40 respectively. 24 stocks advanced against 6 declining ones on the index The BSE Mid-cap index gained 1.36% while Small-cap index was up 1.00%. On the BSE Sectoral front, Realty up 2.12%, Oil & Gas up 1.88%, Auto up 1.74%, Consumer Durables up 1.72% and Metal up 1.30% were the top gainers. On the flip side, there were no losers.

2) India VIX, a gauge for market's short term expectation of volatility lost 6.28% at 19.52 from its previous close of 20.83 on Tuesday. The S&P CNX Nifty gained 65.90 points or 1.19% to settle at 5,592.05. The index touched high and low of 5,596.15 and 5,541.40 respectively. 43 stocks advanced against 7 declining ones on the index. (Provisional)

3) All the Asian equity indices barring Taiwan Weighted finished their day's trade in the positive terrain on Wednesday on the back of better-than-expected Chinese economic growth data. China's second-quarter gross domestic product rose 9.5% from a year earlier, compared with 9.7% growth in the first quarter. However, investors remained worried over the euro-zone debt concern which continued to dampen sentiment, while the euro remained under pressure.

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 13th July, 2011

 
On Tuesday 12 July 2011, Perturbing domestic developments amidst daunting global set up blemished the trade at Dalal Street on Tuesday. A three pronged reason led the massacre, firstly it was the muted earnings number by the IT major- Infosys, the company's sale forecast too missed the street estimates, pulling shares of Indian software exporters lower fuelling concerns that customers are holding off on new contracts because of uncertainties in the global economy. India's second-largest code writer estimated sales in the year to March to range from $7.1 billion to $7.3 billion. Meanwhile, also lugged the benchmarks lower was the sluggish growth of May IIP which came at 5.6% as compared to 6.3% (MoM) basis, much below the expectations of 8.5%. As per the official data, IIP for April-May 2011 stood at 5.7% which is less than the 10.8% achieved last year in the same, what bothered investor's was the reports stating that these numbers are unlikely to influence the apex bank's action, which is more concerned for controlling inflation right now, signaling potential rate hike in the upcoming monetary policy review on July 26, 2011. Additionally, the fears that euro zone debt crisis is spreading to much larger countries like Italy and Spain, stoke fears that the aid from international lenders may not be enough to stop a broad deterioration of the European economy, also casted its shadow over Indian equity markets.

1) The BSE Sensex plunged 309.77 points or 1.65% and settled at 18,411.62 and NSE Nifty fell 89.95 points or 1.60% to settle at 5526.15. The other two broader indices BSE Mid-cap index lost 1.09% while Small-cap index lost 0.94%. On the BSE Sectoral front, there were no gainers. On the other hand, IT down 2.74%, Realty down 2.68%, Teck down 2.41%, Auto down 2.25% and Consumer Durables down 2.19% were the top losers.

2) On the global front, US stocks suffered their worst day in nearly a month on Monday as concern about the stalemate in US budget talks and growing debt problems in the euro zone prompted investors to hedge against further losses. Meanwhile, Hong Kong and South Korean stocks tumbled to lead Asian markets lower on Tuesday as qualms about spreading European debt troubles rattled investors, hitting financial shares and exporters especially hard. The European shares dropped sharply on Tuesday, extending losses into a third session and nearing their 2011 lows as euro zone politicians struggled to contain Greece's debt crisis and stop it spreading to Italy and Spain.

3) Meanwhile, Industrial growth has slowed down in the month of May. Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has come in at 5.6% on a year-on-year basis. However, the market expected it to be at 8.6%. The lower than expected growth is due to the poor performance of manufacturing and mining output. On the other hand, industrial output for the first two months of current financial year also reduced significantly. As per the official data, Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for April-May 2011 stood at 5.7% which is less than the 10.8% achieved last year in the same period. This moderation in industrial growth is viewed as negative effects of increased interest rate, and input costs.

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 12th July, 2011

 
On Monday 11 July 2011, Benchmark indices snapped the first day of the fresh week on negative note, tailing sluggish global cues ahead of the European leaders meet on Italy concerns, which led to the choppiness into the Indian equity markets too. A cautious approach adopted by participants ahead of the flow of the first quarter earnings announcements by corporate, mainly dented the sentiment at Dalal Street. Investors will be closely watching the Q1 results of companies to gauge the future outlook for the market. Hefty losses in Realty and Bankex counters coupled with the plunge of the Metal and Information Technology space, played the malice behind the downfall in the trade. Since Investor's squared off hefty positions from the rate sensitive on the fears that another potential rate hike by RBI in its monetary policy review will crimp the demand for property and loans, thereby sending the Realty and IT index lower by 1.5%. Moreover, Metal and mining stocks extended Friday's slide after a panel of ministers approved the draft Mining Bill, which calls for coal miners to share 26 per cent of their profits and other non-coal mineral miners to pay 100 per cent royalty to project-affected people.


1) The BSE Sensex lost 136.65 points or 0.72% and settled at 18,721.39 and NSE Nifty closed at 5616.10 with the loss of 44.55 points or 0.79%. Other two vital indices BSE Mid-cap index lost 0.31% while Small-cap index lost 0.42%. On the BSE Sectoral front, FMCG up 0.52%, Consumer Durables up 0.50%, % and Oil & Gas up 0.13% were the only gainers. On the flip side, Realty down 2.54%, IT down 1.73%, Teck down 1.58%, Metal down 1.54% and Bankex down 1.39% were the top losers.


2) On the global front, US stocks fell on Friday as a weak jobs report dashed optimism that the economy was emerging from a soft patch, leaving investors to hope earnings season would revive an appetite for buying. The Asian stocks too finished the trade in red on concerns about the region's exports after a dismal US jobs report on Friday and European indices too failed to provide a fillip to the Indian equity markets as the major share markets opened lower on Monday.


3) Meanwhile, India's domestic passenger car sales grew by 1.62% for June, this is the slowest pace of growth in more than two years, the second-fastest growing auto market is experiencing moderation in growth due to the increased interest rates by RBI, increasing fuel prices and increased cost of raw materials. Car sales grew by 1.62% to 143,370 units in June from 141,087 units in same month previous year, however, commercial and motorcycles registered a growth of 17.83% to 62,009 units and 14.97% to 934,975 units respectively. Motorcycle sales in the country grew by 14.97% during the month to 825,323 units from 717,859 units in the corresponding month last year. Total two-wheeler sales increased by 14.59% to 10,71,425 units last month from 934,975 units in June, 2010.

Morning Note - Market Insight By Mansukh - 11th July, 2011

 On Friday 08 July 2011,Local bourses entered the correction phase and lost more than half of their previous session gains. Investigation related to the telecom scams coupled with GoM approved Draft Mines & Minerals Development & Regulation Bill were the issues that rocked the markets today. Further, even bottom line pressure woes marred the sentiment at Dalal Street, thereby leading profit booking well before the corporate earnings season formally kicks in. However, HDFC and IndusInd bank were the stocks that caught investor's eye on reported their Q1FY12 numbers. HDFC lost over 1% on reporting lower than estimated earnings. The company reported 22% in its profit after tax for the quarter ended June 30, 2011 at Rs 844.53 crore as compared to Rs 694.59 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2010. On the other hand, IndusInd Bank's stocks rose over 0.50%; amusing the street with its number. The bank's net profit for the quarter ended June 30, 2011 surged by 51.99% at Rs 180.18 crore as compared to Rs 118.55 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2010.

    1)  The BSE Sensex lost 220.16 points or 1.15% and settled at 18,858.04  and NSE Nifty also lost 68.30 points or 1.19% and closed at 5660.65. Other two BSE broader indices BSE Mid-cap index lost 0.61% while Small-cap index was down by 0.86%. On the BSE Sectoral front, Realty up 2.08% was the only gainers. On the flip side, Metal down 2.99%, PSU down 1.72%, FMCG down 1.14%, Oil&Gas down 1.13% and Capital Goods down 0.93% were the top losers.

2) On the global front, US stocks marched higher on Thursday, as encouraging news about both US employment and retail sales drove investors into risky assets. Investors were heartened by June private-sector jobs gains that comfortably outstripped economists' forecasts. Meanwhile, Asian shares too tailing the upbeat US employment data ended mostly higher on improved risk appetite. The European shares were on the track for a ninth gain in 10 sessions, boosted by Wall Street and Asia stocks, and ahead of key US labour data that may confirm the strength of the recovery in the world's biggest economy.

3) On Friday, the group of ministers headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee gave a go ahead to the draft bill for the mining sector, which makes it mandatory for coal miners to share 26% of their net profits with project-affected people. The bill also proposed companies mining other resources to pay 100% of the royalty on their production to the original inhabitants of the project site. On the other hand, Meanwhile, on the back of increased demand from western markets India's exports for June increased by 46.4% to $29.2 billion, on the other hand, imports too registered a growth of 42.4% to $36.9 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $7.7 billion for the month of June. In the first quarter of current financial year, exports grew by 45.7% to $79 billion and imports increased by 36.2 % to 110.6 billion, however, trade deficit for the first quarter stood at $31.6 billion.